Baseball Betting Statistic from Different View

Baseball Betting Statistic from Different View

The term "slugging percentage" has been around baseball for long time. For those that either don't remember or just don't know, how a slugging percentage is derived is taking the total bases of a hitter and divided by the number of at bats, discounting wa


2008-07-21

The term "slugging percentage" has been around baseball for long time. For those that either don't remember or just don't know, how a slugging percentage is derived is taking the total bases of a hitter and divided by the number of at bats, discounting walks. What this statistic is designed to do is gauge the performance of a hitter based on all-around ability to hit for power, just not home runs. In 2001, Barry Bonds broke Babe Ruth's record in this category with a .863 slugging percentage, besting Ruth's mark of .847, set in 1920. What happens when you turn it around and look at these same numbers from pitching perspective?

When you turn this category the other way and look at from starting pitcher point of view, a whole different way of looking at baseball comes about. Here we seek pitchers who can limit a teams hitting prowess across the board. There is no question, if a bettor is just looking at units won; there is a better list to find than this one. If a person is more comfortable in wagering on the deliveries of Vincente Padilla of Texas or Livan Hernandez of Minnesota, good luck and hope they keep providing you wins, no matter how many hits they allow per start. Here we're looking at quality, pitchers who avoid trouble and are also at the mercy of run support.

For the season, .411 slugging percentage is the average for all 30 teams. Oakland's Justin Duchscherer (10-6, 1.87 ERA) has been among the baseball's best all season at .288 SP, limiting teams chances of scoring runs. Duchscherer may only be up +2.4 units on the season, however in the seven losses the A's have suffered in his starts, they managed a total of nine runs. The Oakland right-hander has done his part, he just needs more support.

Many of the starters are top line pitchers, who also bring money to bettors wagering accounts. The Reds Edinson Volquez (12-2, 2.49) is among the leaders at +7.2 units, thanks to .310 slugging percentage against him. The Cleveland Indians are having forgettable season, however Cliff Lee is manufacturing one for the Indians record books at 13-2, with 2.29 ERA, after complete game win against Seattle on Sunday. With teams having only .320 SP, the left-hander has gained +8 units. The Cubs Ryan Dempster is having career renaissance as a starter and is 11-4, and lowered ERA to 3.05 with eight shutout innings against Houston in series finale, and is at .322 SP, while gathering +8.5 units. Though Tim Lincecum (11-3, 2.79) took a rare loss to Milwaukee, he's given up a solid .333 SP, while earning +5.9 units of profit for backers.

If there is a downside to this statistic, outside elements can interfere. Arizona's All-Stars Brandon Webb (13-4, 3.11) and Dan Haren (9-5, 2.58) , both are in the top 12 of lowest slugging percentage allowed and both pitched absolute gems in the last 10 days and in each case the bullpen either deprived pitcher of a win and the team victory or nearly did so.

Other times, it pays to know recent form, take the Tigers Justin Verlander. His 8-9 record is hardly impressive and his 3.95 earned run average will not turn many heads. On the season he and Detroit have cost bettors plenty, losing -7.3 units. By the time May ended, Verlander was 2-8, the Tigers were 2-10 in his starts, as he was walking too many batters and giving up nearly a home run per outing. Even as the losses were mounting, signs of a turnaround were coming, as free passes were diminishing, along with long balls allowed. Now Verlander has won 5-0 in row and he and Detroit have picked up +6 units in last half dozen trips to the mound. Opposing hitters are down to .339 slugging percentage against the 25-year old right-hander.

Keep an eye on pitchers that keep the ball in the park and surrender lower hit totals, as these types of pitchers will give you and the team you are wagering on a chance to win with greater regularity over the 162-game schedule.

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